Egyptian Uprising Rattles Muslim Rulers
It may not be the Arab Revolt of the Lawrence of Arabia vintage, but the ferocity of events in Egypt has turned many Muslim rulers sleepless. Amidst the fear of a domino effect hitting others, susceptible Arab rulers have undertaken necessary preparation to steer through any unexpected crisis. And, backed by other Arab rulers, President Hosni Mubarak has managed to dodge a major political earthquake. “He is safe for now,” said a diplomatic source, although, hours before, Egypt seemed teetering on the verge of a revolution. The source said Arab rulers are overly concerned about the fate of a nation that has for centuries been the cradle of the Arab - Islamic civilization.
Yet, seemingly caught by total surprise, it took about a week for President Mubarak to mobilize a counter-attack and hit back at nearly a million anti-regime activists who were hell bent on ensuring Mubarak’s immediate removal from power.
The spark
The latest events mirrored the uprising as being a classical Marxist class conflict; the rural Egyptians siding with Mubarak while the urban elites bidding to maximize their economic, social and political interests by resorting to unconstitutional methods to change the nation’s political structure and its leadership. For both camps, it’s still proving as tough as growing grapes in the desert.
For a layman, however, the story unfolded like movie sequels. The Egyptian revolt erupted following the recent uprisings in Tunisia where a 23-year-old authoritarian ruler, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, fled in a huff to Saudi Arabia after a month-long street agitations. As copy-cat street demonstrations followed in Yemen, where demonstrators demanded the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh after his 32-year long iron-fisted rule, tweeter-savvy, urban Egyptians followed suit.
To appease the crowd, Mubarak came out on nationwide TV, asking his government to resign and to offer a reform package that could address the needs of the Egyptian people. A clever manipulator and a ruthless ruler of the largest Arab-Islamic nation since 1981 (Egypt has 81 million population), Mubarak first appointed a new Vice President and a Prime Minister, both with military background. The military having been pacified, he then made an assuring public declaration that he would not seek a re-election in the upcoming Presidential poll in September 2011 and, reforms would take place as per the demonstrators’ desire.
Military factor
Beneath the surface, it was the Egyptian military which swayed the balance. Like Pakistan, Egyptian military is deeply embedded in the national political manoeuvrings, thanks to the 1952 military - led revolution which ended the Egyptian monarchism and bestowed the nation with a chain of military leaders since; from Gamel Abdul Nasser through Anwar Sadat to Husni Mubarak. Mubarak deployed the army last Friday after police forces were accused of using excessive force on protesters.
The army played it with cool nerve so far, insisting it would not attack peaceful demonstrations. But, following the televised speech on Tuesday, the former air force General ordered the military to urge the demonstrators to return home. Aware that the demonstrators have external backing and may not yield, he then resorted to mobilizing counter-demonstration by his party loyalists.
“Your message is received … (your) demands became known,” a Defence Ministry spokesman said on state-run television, adding, “We are here and awake to protect the country for you … not by power but by the love to Egypt. It is time to go back to normal life.”
That call for return to normalcy fell in deaf ears; leading to Mubarak loyalists’ gathering around Tehran’s Tahrir square since Wednesday noon. Armed with machetes and Molotov cocktails, they charged through the anti-government demonstrators, overturned military vehicles and blasted volleys of cocktails to scare the gathering mass. Reportedly, one anti- government demonstrator was killed and nearly 400 injured in the ensuing pandemonium, but the showdown has had the desired effect of changing the dynamic of an uprising which many thought would snow ball across the region.
Social factor
Observable in this anti-climax of a much vaunted revolution was the faces and the facades of the demonstrators in both camps. The anti-government activists were urban, educated and blue-coloured. Most of them, unlike ordinary Egyptians, spoke English with neatly-polished accents. Many even sported foreign passports. The pro-government demonstrators, who lurched into the fray in their thousands on February 1, were ordinary Egyptians. They were more bothered about the widespread instability and its impact, and wanted the 30-year-long ruler to have an honourable exit from power. “Mubarak had accepted their demand. What else they want?” yelled one of Mubarak loyalists.
That does not mean the game is up for either side. Also unknown is what might follow. What, however, seems certain is that further instigation from external powers to keep the uprising on the boil is bound to recoil to the detriment of the greater Egyptian-Arab interests, as well as the overall geopolitical interest of leading Western nations; which are given into the habit of using rulers from Arab-Islamic nations as puppets when needed, only to dispense them away like tissue papers once the core interest changes.
That is precisely why all the externally-instigated uprisings recoiled detrimentally in the Arab world. The anti-Shah uprising in 1979 turned Iran into an Islamic Republic. In 2002, George Bush’s famous Beirut spring—that the political status quo could not and should not be maintained in the Middle East—proved so futile in Lebanon that it had resulted in the brutal assassination of another pro-Western leader, Rafic Hariri of Lebanon, in February 2005. Subsequently, it also sparked Hezbollah’s pre-eminence in Lebanon, prompting Israel to wage another war against Lebanon in 2006 in which, for the first time, Israeli military was disgracefully routed by few thousand Hezbollah guerrillas.
Those lessons seemed lost when the West began to insist on bringing democracy in the Palestine long before the Palestinian people could be liberated first, leading to Hamas winning the January 2006 election and becoming the lawful rulers of Gaza. Earlier, the Algerian civil war started when the Western nations prodded the military to take over power following winning of an election in 1991 by Islamic forces. An estimated 150,000 to 200,000 Algerians have perished in that civil conflict ever since.
Limited choice
Until the election to office of President Barack Obama in late 2008, the US had no standing in the Arab streets. That pauperized perception will take time to bounce back. Two recent polls indicated nearly 80% of Egyptian population dislikes the US while 59% preferred the Islamists to the so called modernizers who are supported only by 27% of Egyptians. The ongoing ‘twitter revolution’ in Egypt, — which is credited for having kicked off by the Tunisian uprising and the twitter activism among the Egyptian youths it had unleashed—is backed by this tiny minority.
Such a reality proves another of Mubarak’s assertion that, in Egypt, the choice is between him and the Islamic Brotherhood, there being no other organized political group. Even the Kifaya movement of the past has been taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood. Its leader, until recently, was Abdel Wahhab al-Messiri, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Muhammad el-Baradei, newly-injected leader of the reformist movement and the former head of the IAEA, is, on the other hand, blamed by many as being a US agent and a stranger to the nation of Egypt.
One wonders what kind of democracy is the West seeking in Egypt where no democratic institutions and parties were allowed to flourish. The Time magazine also raised the same concerns lately. “Democracy movements are attractive to Washington when they target a regime such as Iran’s, but in allied autocracies, they’re a problem. There’s no way for Egypt to be democratic and exclude the Islamists from political participation. The same is true for most other parts of the Arab world — a lesson the U.S. ought to have learned in Iraq, where Islamists have dominated all the democratically elected governments that followed Saddam Hussein’s ouster,” the Time observed.
Vanguard nation
Egypt is a vanguard Arab nation. Since the 1970s, it started gradual liberalization of its economy amidst enormous hardship caused by successive wars with Israel in which its military played a central role among other Arab armies. President Sadat’s signing of a peace deal with Israel in 1979 led to his assassination in 1981 and brought to power then Vice President, Hosni Mubarak. In the 1990s, Mubarak was forced to speed up privatisation process when a daunting foreign debt crisis sparked by international lending organizations made privatisation a pre-condition for aid.
An agrarian economy until recently, the Egyptian economy is bereft of much resources. As a trusted US ally, Mubarak managed over $1 billion in US aid per year since the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile, a middle class resurgence, spearheaded by privatization-induced business elites, occurred, resulting 20 per cent of the seats of the People’s Assembly, the lower chamber of the Egyptian parliament, going to business elites in the 2005 election. The power thus got shared between and among the elites while the military buttressed it from the barracks.
Reforms undertaken
Yet, the vagueness of the Western cry for reform never ebbed, compelling Mubarak to embark upon the much needed political reforms. In a speech on Feb. 26, 2005, he pronounced that Article 76 of the Constitution would be amended to allow multi-candidate presidential elections. The amendment was approved in a national referendum on May 25, 2005. The establishment of a Higher Elections Commission under the chairmanship of the Minister of Justice followed.
The oppositions’ demand for reform too remains vexing, vacuous and largely unspecified. Contrary to public perceptions, it’s not the lack of political or economic reforms that had sealed Mubarak’s fate. In preceding years, global economic crisis posed an enormous challenge to the Egyptian economy; the GDP growth reducing to 4.5% in 2009 (totalling $470 billion) and further slowing down export and manufacturing. In desperation, Mubarak injected into the economy a $2.7 billion stimulus package, which did little to mitigate the slowdown. By late 2010, unemployment reached 10%. Meanwhile, a number of terror attacks reduced income from tourism which constitutes over 12% of the GDP.
If the crisis lingers, a potential closure of the Suez Canal, a vital artery between Europe and Asia accounting for about 10% of global sea-borne trade, will shoot oil price past $100 mark it is now, due to the week-long agitation in Egypt. That will add more burden to the moribund Egyptian economy. Unlike many Arab nations, Egypt is a net oil importer.
External pressures
The crisis also poisoned anew the US-Arab relations; at a time when President Obama had just begun to recuperate from a staggering slump in popular rating. The Daily Telegraph of UK claimed the Egyptian revolt was prepared with the US secret support. The paper said the US had prepared Egyptian oppositions for three years to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak, adding, “The Washington Administration publicly poses as Mubarak’s ally, while secretly providing support for the opposition forces.” The paper quoted US diplomats’ reports from Cairo, made public by the WikiLeaks website.
That may or may not be true, notwithstanding that the CIA has had, until recently, the notorious reputation of acting as the government within a government. In the Arab capitals, however, Obama’s latest call to Mubarak to undertake reform ‘now’ did not go down well. Egyptian foreign ministry has told the US and other foreign powers last Wednesday that their pressure for reforms tantamount to interfering in Egypt’s internal affairs.
As the saga lingered, Saudi King and other Arab monarchs had reportedly told Mubarak to suppress the uprising without any hesitation to quarantine its spreading in other vulnerable Muslim nations.
Author: M. Shahidul Islam
Source: Weekly Holiday

Subscribe RSS
